Offseason baseball dream #1

I’m at Citizens Bank Park watching a baseball game. I notice on the scoreboard, which for some reason is above home plate rather than the outfield, that Chase Utley is leading off and realize he’s a Phillie again, having signed with them as a free agent when his contract with the Dodgers ended. I welcome him back, although I wonder whether bringing him back was a good baseball decision. I wonder where Howie Kendrick will play, and why the Phillies traded for him. I walk over to where the bullpens used to be, but the bullpens are gone, or at least there are no pitchers in them, but instead there are only small children playing children’s games, part-Little League and part-playground. I begin wandering the stadium with my camera, looking for the bullpens so that I can take photos of the pitchers warming up. Eventually I descend an escalator to a large, mostly empty concourse and find them, only I can no longer see the pitchers warming up because the bullpens are covered in an enormous veil, like gypsy moths covering a forest, through which I can only see shadows of what I can imagine are pitchers throwing warm-up tosses. “They didn’t want people staring at them taking photos,” someone explains to me. “It distracted them and they didn’t like it.” I wonder whether I’ll ever be able to take photos of pitchers warming up again, ever be able to post them to Instagram and Flickr again. I wake up, delirious, but confident that the Phillies made a good baseball decision, because Howie Kendrick is a better baseball player than Chase Utley.

On Dellin Betances and WAR

According to Brian McCann, he’s not the Yankees’ 2015 MVP despite 25 home runs (387 at-bats) nor is 40-year old ARod (28 HR in 444 AB) nor is Mark Teixeira (31 HR in 392 AB). It’s relief pitcher Dellin Betances (a 1.40 ERA and 13.9 K/9 but only 70.2 innings).

Surprisingly, he’s not wrong (maybe).

2015 New York Yankees by WAR
Teixeira 3.9
Gardner 3.3
Betances 3.3
McCann 3.0
ARod 2.9
Didi Gregorius 2.7

Joe Posnanski recently argued that despite its detractors, WAR has “changed the landscape” to the extent that the utterly ridiculous MVP has disappeared.

[R]ealistically, I just don’t see how anyone who isn’t at least near the top of the WAR chart can build enough of a consensus to win the MVP award these days. I just don’t think it’s possible now…I don’t think WAR is necessarily is picking more winners, but I do think it is eliminating more contenders. I think it’s narrowing the field. I just don’t think quirky and emotional choices like Willie Stargell will be winning MVP awards now. You can either celebrate or bemoan this, but I think it’s the new reality.

But I think there’s a corollary to this, and that’s how WAR can make what might appear utterly ridiculous (or maybe it wouldn’t; I don’t watch the Yankees regularly so maybe it’s obvious that Betances is a realistic MVP candidate for the team) plausible. Betances isn’t an AL MVP candidate (Donaldson and Trout, or Trout and Donaldson if you prefer–with all due respect to Dallas Keuchel and Kevin Kiermaier and Lorenzo Cain) and he isn’t even necessarily the Yankees MVP (.6 WAR difference isn’t trivial, and 70.2 innings vs. 462 plate appearances isn’t trivial either). But it’s not ridiculous.

We love you Pat Burrell

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pat Burrell as a Phil: .257/.367/.485, 119 OPS+, 251 HR, 785 BB, 1273 K, an age 27 949 similarity score with Pete Incaviglia, & one World Series ring

Velvet & Thome

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jim Thome career: .277/.403/.558, 147 OPS+, 600 HR, 1662 RBI, 2263 hits, 1710 BB, 169 IBB, 2453 K, one resemblance to my cat

Ex-Phils roundup, West Coast edition

No one at Chavez Ravine last night saw Juan Castro and his 15th-worst-in-the-majors (out of 882 total) -9.1 VORP, as he’s currently an Albuquerque Isotope, where his teammates include Ivan “no relation” de Jesus, Jr (meaning no relation to Jose, not to fellow ex-Phil Ivan de Jesus, Sr).

Carlos Monasterios (3-3 with a 3.50 ERA and 111 ERA+ in 23 games, 8 of them starts; now back in the bullpen with Ted Lilly in the rotation) and Matt Stairs (whose .190/.257/.333 line in 63 AB is slightly worse than his 2009 stats with the Phils) were also missing in action.

Not to worry, as Vicente Padilla blanked the Padres on two hits, striking out 9 and throwing 77 of his 105 pitches for strikes. Padilla is now 5-3 with a 3.09 ERA on the season, as he continues his shockingly dominant performance with the Dodgers.

                            Overall            With Dodgers

ERA+                    101                    126

K/9                        6.3                     8.4

BB/9                      3.2                     2.3

Hits/9                     9.2                     7.1

Padilla is 9-3, 3.12 overall since the Dodgers acquired him last August for….nothing, after he was released by Texas.

Sadly, the Phils received the same value for Padilla when they traded him to Texas in December 2005 in a salary dump.

Padilla wasn’t horrible as either a Phillie or a Ranger. He was 9-12 with a 4.71 ERA (94 ERA+) for the 2005 Phils and 8-6 with a 4.92 ERA (95 ERA+) for Texas before being released last season– the worst ERA among Ranger starters other than prospect Derek Holland, but surely worth something more than nothing.

On the other hand, Padilla’s reputation as a headhunter (105 career HBP, leading the AL with 17 in 2006; fellow headhunter Pedro Martinez only has 36 more in six more seasons and over 1300 more innings) and, well, other unpopular traits meant he wasn’t exactly missed by his Texas teammates. The Dodgers still felt he was worth one year at $4,025,000. And he has been.

Word of warning: Padilla has the lowest BABIP among the Dodger rotation by far, at .233 (Kershaw is second lowest at .293), so when his luck runs out, he may still turn into a calabaza.

Who knew

….the Phillies actually won the Schilling trade.

True both overall:

Total Win Shares After Trade
Schilling:122.6
Lee/Padilla/Daal/Figueroa: 176.5

and just between the two teams involved:

Total Win Shares After Trade
Schilling with Arizona: 71.4
Lee/Padilla/Daal/Figueroa with Phillies: 93.3

Of course, this doesn’t take into account win shares from the three roster spots the Phillies lost to make room for the new acquisitions, which would make it a bit closer– nor, regarding the overall numbers, the fact that Padilla’s still accumulating win shares, despite gunshot wounds. But still…who would have thought it wouldn’t be quite so ugly 10 years later?

Now the Rolen trade….