Archive for October, 2016

If Bill James Is Wrong, I Don’t Want To Be Right

Posted in 2016 Other on October 6, 2016 by wechslerh66

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From today’s Hey Bill:

While I would probably have used Britton in that situation myself, the media blasting Showalter for not doing so, and saying it cost them the game are reaching, aren’t they?  

There’s no guarantee that Britton doesn’t get a similar result, and there’s no way to know the final result even if he got them out of the inning.  At worst he cost them a 50/50 opportunity to win, assuming Britton is successful.  

Am I missing something?

Asked by: Christopher

Answered: 10/6/2016

 Well. ..certainly looks different 24 hours later.   The Mets DID use their closer.   And that didn’t work, either.  

Of course there are no guarantees—but:

Britton 2016: 0.54 ERA, 1.94 FIP, 2.09 xFIP, 2.5 fWAR, 9.94 K/9, 2.42 BB/9, 0.836 WHIP, 47/47 SV (67 IP)

Familia 2016: 2.55 ERA, 2.39 FIP, 3.03 xFIP, 2.2 fWAR, 9.73 K/9, 3.59 BB/9, 1.210 WHIP, 51/56 SV (77 2/3 IP)

Blue Jays 11th inning: Carrera-Travis-Donaldson (9-1-2)

Giants 9th inning: Crawford-Pagan-Panik (5-6-7)

One was near-perfect this year and would have faced the top of the lineup (or, once Travis and Donaldson reached, the heart of the order).

The other was less perfect this year and was facing the middle of the order, losing the game on a three-run home run to the 8-hole hitter.

No, Ubaldo Jimenez is no Zach Britton.  But in 2016, neither is Jeurys Familia.

Photo courtesy of Flickr.

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MLB Playoff Projections 2016

Posted in 2016 Other on October 4, 2016 by wechslerh66

Wild card game
Toronto vs. Baltimore
Who I want to win: Tossup.  Baltimore for Nina and Freddie, and maybe even Buck; Toronto because Toronto-Texas would be awesome.  Oh, and Gord.
Who I think will win: Toronto, because of Stroman at home.

Mets vs. San Francisco
Who I want to win: No one.
Who I think will win: San Francisco, because of Bumgarner.

ALDS
Boston vs. Cleveland
Who I want to win: The overdog.  I know, but I love Fenway and the gray road jerseys that just read BOSTON and Betts would be my MVP runnerup (Trout, duh) and they don’t even have Papelbon this time.
Who I think will win: Boston in 4, because Salazar and Carrasco won’t pitch.

Texas vs. Toronto
Who I want to win: Texas, slightly, because of Hamels and because Boston-Texas would be a better ALCS.
Who I think will win: Toronto in 4, because they are a better team, no, really.  (94-68.  79-83.  The Mariners were jobbed!)

NLDS
Cubs vs. San Francisco
Who I want to win: Cubs, because Cubs Win, and Joe Maddon.
Who I think will win: San Francisco in 5, not because it ends in -16, but because of Bumgarner-Cueto-Samardzija, and Bochy is pretty good too.

Dodgers vs. Washington
Who I want to win: Vin Scully and Chavez Ravine.
Who I think will win: Dodgers in 4, because Scherzer will only pitch once.

ALCS
Boston vs. Toronto
Who I want to win: Boston
Who I think will win: Boston in 5.  (I think Toronto is a better team than Texas, but if it’s Texas, I would pick Boston in 6.  No, I don’t know why either.)

NLCS
Dodgers vs. San Francisco
Who I want to win: Dodgers
Who I think will win: Giants in 7, because I had them winning the NL in April and I’m never wrong.

World Series
Boston vs. San Francisco
Who I want to win: Boston.  Actually the Dodgers, then the Cubs, but if it’s Boston-San Francisco…
Who I think will win: Boston, because I had them winning the World Series in April and I’m never wrong.

…other than my AL East predictions:

Orioles 69-93

or, uh, AL Central:

Twins 83-79

or AL West

Mariners* 90-72

* = projected playoff team

The Mariners were jobbed!

Phillies 5, Mets 2

Posted in 2016 Phillies on October 3, 2016 by wechslerh66

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Box score

More photos

Opposing team jerseys in the stands: PIAZZA 31, REYES 7, CESPEDES 52, MARTINEZ 45, NIMMO 9, WRIGHT 5, deGROM 48, WHEELER 45, GLAVINE 47 (!), d’ARNAUD 7

Other team jerseys in the stands: TULOWITZKI 2 (Blue Jays), GRIFFEY 24 (Mariners shirsey), ORTIZ 34 (Red Sox)