On Martín Pérez

Writer Friend Rob and I exchanged a few emails about the MLB power rankings and Wily Veteran free agent Pirates pickup Martín Pérez.

February 19
From: Writer Friend Rob
To: Me
USA Today released their first MLB power ranking and the listing raised a few eyebrows at my end.

#29 White Sox: Just a few years ago this looked like a club locked in as a perennial October fixture. 29 is probably right which is all the more shocking… “have a strong foundation when the winds of changes shift.”

#27 Pittsburgh
#26 Kansas City: both too low. I see the Royal Blue making a big move in ’24. Witt is the Brett/Gordon future and they’ve got some young talent (Pasquantino/Melendez) surrounding. As for Pitt, the NL Central is wide open. They might be division champs.

#24 Halos: Probably right and an American tragedy in the making. I mean it’s one thing not to play in a WS but it’s another to be one of the best to ever play and be October vacant.

#18: San Diego: You’d think higher, right? How can spend a zillion for ‘generational’ players and look up to find the Diamondbacks in the WS?

#13 Tampa: Too low. Every year one of the best. Every following year picked as second tier riff-raff

#12 cubs: This is too high. Hendricks is still on the roster, probably the only 2016-er left for the last 5 years or so. They just seem like a bunch of ill-fitting parts.

#5: Yankees: This is too high. Maybe it’s the name, the history… USA Today is not looking at all the holes.

FYI: Phils #4. Rangers #8

February 25
From: Me
To: Writer Friend Rob
From the top down:

I feel like the Phillies and O’s are too high, but it’s tough for me to say who should replace them. Astros and Rangers would be my best guesses, though Jordan Montgomery would help either (of course, he would help the O’s just as much).

Or maybe it’s the Rays. How are they ranked behind the Reds?!? Or the D’backs, or the Mariners. They were 10 games ahead the BEST of these teams last year (Seattle) according to the *adjusted* standings and 27 games ahead of the worst (Reds). Is Jeimer Candelario THAT good?

I agree with you on the Yankees too, particularly when it comes to their own division, where they’re arguably the fourth best team, with upside in Boston (my closet Red Sox fandom increases when they’re the underdog, so I will be watching more NESN on my MLB app this season). I don’t think the Yankees will be bad, exactly, or at least no worse than last year, when their projected record was 81-81 (a game worse than their actual record, which would actually have been last in the division by percentage points over the Red Sox’s projected record). Fifth in the division is more likely than fifth in baseball.

I keep going back to the Reds at #10 on this list. I just don’t get it. No respect for the Rays, of course, but the Cubs at #12? The Twins at #14? The Cardinals at #15? I would be surprised if the Guardians, at #16, aren’t better than the Reds; I might take the over at “five games better” (and that’s not me as the also-closet-Cleveland-fan talking). The Brewers at #21 may even be better than the Reds. I just don’t see it.

The Padres, if anything, are high to me at #18. They’re a deadline deal waiting to happen. Within the same division, the Giants are low. I have them better than the Padres. I also think this list is sleeping on the Tigers, who are more likely to win their division than be the 23rd best team in baseball.

#24 seemed high for the Angels, and then I looked at the bottom six teams. Ugh. Maybe the Pirates can catch them. If not, at least there’s an NL Central team worse than the Reds.

February 28
From: Writer Friend Rob
To: Me
I’m thinking by May, everyone will truly hate the Dodgers. Which is fine. I’ll be among them… which leads to the very real possibility of a 2024 Baltimore/LA Series aka David/Goliath… which is why I sorta hope Montgomery the Horse signs with the Birds.

Given the Rangers mound woes (they gotta play the season like deGrom and Scherzer aren’t coming back), letting Monty go appears holy-shit shortsighted … but maybe he wanted out. I know you’re going “here he goes again” but why not chase after and get Lyles and Gibson back home. Talk about horses.

… which is why I’m glad I have the Dallas Morning News tribute book to the ’23 champs… cause teams part like atoms. Garver (Seattle) is gone. So Martin Perez (2022 All-star) to Pitt. Two huge loses already.

I wish the Phils well. For the good of baseball in general, here’s hoping that Harper has a healthy ’24.

February 29
From: Me
To: Writer Friend Rob
I’ll defer to you, who watched him every night (well, every fifth night or so), but I think Marty Perez is replaceable.

Wins Against Replacement, past five years:
2019: 0.4
2020: 1.1
2021: 0.4
2022: 5.0 (All-Star)
2023: 0.8

If you go back a sixth year, you can include a bonus negative value (-0.8 his final year in Texas the first time around in 2018).

He had one great year, emphasis on “one” as much as “great year” (his next best year by WAR after 2022 was 2.3 in 2017, his next to last year in Texas, right before the -0.8 year, which was his worst year). On the 2023 Rangers, he was slightly more valuable than Chris Stratton and percentage points less valuable than six games of Jacob deGrom. They’ll survive.

February 29
From: Writer Friend Rob
To: Me
I’ll grant you the numbers. On another front, Perez was a comfort zone: here’s a guy that can get us out of this mess… as opposed to a Chapman (also gone 😋): I can’t watch this, I’m going to go mow the lawn.

MP was kind of like: Wheeler’s on the mound today, we got a shot.

Also psy-ops may have played a role. He was the #1 ace in “22 and reduced to middle relief in ’23 simply because other guys with contracts were in the house.

We’ll keep watch but I think Martin is a solid pickup for the Jolly Roger.

February 29
From: Me
To: Writer Friend Rob
“Unhappy is the land that breeds no Martin Perez!”
“No, Bruce…unhappy is the land that needs a Martin Perez.”
–Bertolt Brecht

February 29
From: Me
To: Writer Friend Rob
I will say this about Perez, though: 1 year/$8M isn’t a bad deal. It’s less than what Blake Snell will end up with, even now, for what may be a comparable performance in both total innings and overall value. If I’m skeptical, some of that is also the team that signed him. I would be rating Perez more highly if it were Tampa or Atlanta or Houston giving him the $8M and not the Burgh.

MLB 2023 Offseason Deadblog

Writer Friend (and Exultant Ranger Fan) Rob and (Dejected Phillies Fan) I have been exchanging non-realtime notes on offseason moves and non-moves so far, not all of which involve Shohei Ohtani. A few recent ones (Writer Friend Rob’s are in italics) (note: if you missed the “Sborz is a vampire” meme, that’s because I haven’t posted it yet; also, see above):

November 2
From: Me
To: Writer Friend Rob
The good guys won.
Only 101 days until pitchers and catchers report.

From: Writer Friend Rob
To: Me
They won due to the convergence of money (hardly ever works) plus trades and AAA arrivals that all panned out. So, was luck involved? I don’t know. The season was more the planets aligning. Maybe after 51 years of failure, that’s the way the universe works. I do know you can’t win without the Jankowski’s (ask St. Louis and San Diego)… and I use him as an everyman. As for Evan Carter… he was the last minute gift.
Everyone will be talking dynasty. See 2016 Cubs.

November 3
From: Me
To: Writer Friend Rob
It’s always luck, but you have to be good to be lucky.
Maybe next year will be that Phillies-Angels series you predicted back in March or the Yankees-Mariners ALCS/Braves-Cardinals NLCS I predicted (I didn’t predict who wins either). Hopefully you’re right and I’m wrong, but more likely Ohtani ends up on the Dodgers or Yankees and the Angels still suck, only more so. The Padres are my sleeper pick for 2024. I’m thinking Padres-Mets NLCS for no good reason. 100 days until pitchers and catchers.

From: Writer Friend Rob
To: Me
Given the new lengthy postseason, we need a Mr October award: a playoff MVP. Certainly Eovaldi and Alvarez would be in the running, but I’d go with the vampire Sborz. Amazing that in all the after-reports no writer has keyed on this bloodsucker. A middling guy who ran hot and cold all season, he proved electric the last month. Night after night in key late innings , he delivered. Give Sborz the first “Reggie.”

From: Me
To: Writer Friend Rob
Sportswriters looked in the mirror and saw nothing.

November 22
From: Writer Friend Rob
To: Me
Seems to me, wherever Ohtani goes he’ll demand that he field on occasion or every game. Can’t imagine a stud like that riding the bench for a full season. There’s this thing: pride. Even born to hit Alvarez found a spot in left. So, look for a team with some kind of opening at first. Harper could still play right, right?

From: Me
To: Writer Friend Rob
Harper won’t be leaving first anytime soon (see also: Rhys Hoskins playing somewhere else next year, because Hoskins can barely play first; he is the new Dr. Strangeglove (the original of whom was also a Phillie)), but it’s a non-issue as far as Ohtani is concerned.
Number of games Ohtani played a position other than DH or P:
2023: none
2022: none
2021: 7 (6 RF, 1 LF)
2020: none
2019: none
2018: none
If anyone ended up in the outfield just for the hell of it, it would be Ohtani, not Harper.
With that said, the odds that Ohtani will be a Phillie next season are about the same as the number of games Ohtani played the field the past two years. My money is on either Cubs or Dodgers (tossup), followed by Yankees (just because). The luxury tax be damned (we’re #1!) but I just don’t think he wants to play here given the other options, and the guy can play anywhere he wants. I would love to see him on the Guardians, myself.

November 23
From: Writer Friend Rob
To: Me
I’ll leave the reason(s) to the analytics, but the Halos’ losing seasons still feel inconceivable given the MVP duo. Somehow nothing worked and Trout getting banged up at the worst possible times sure as hell didn’t help. I still believe Seattle will grab him, maybe for the short term. As a GM , I’m not offering gag zillions just for a bat.

From: Me
To: Writer Friend Rob
The bat hasn’t lost much, yet, but as with deGrom last year, the question is how often you actually get the bat. On the other hand, the Rangers won a World Series with six games and 30 innings of deGrom, so maybe the team that gets Trout will win a World Series with 19 at-bats from him.
Or maybe Trout should try pitching.
As I think I mentioned before, a small-town sportswriter I knew back in the 80s compared the Angels franchise to Joe Btfsplk from Li’l Abner, with the perpetual rain cloud over his head. They aren’t quite that now, with one more World Series than the Mariners have World Series appearances and 16 years more recently than the Mets last won one, but it is weird to think Garret Anderson and Darin Erstad are World Champions (flags fly forever, or rings) while Trout and Ohtani have three playoff games between them.

NHL Playoff Picks 2023: Round Two

As always, the Dave Hannah Theory of Goaltending governs, unless it doesn’t. Also, by my count, the team with more former Canucks on their roster went 1-2 in Round One, with only Toronto (Luke Schenn) beating Tampa Bay (none). (The other five series were tied, with either no former Canucks or one on each team.)

Smythe Division

Golden Knights-Oilers: Ex-Oiler backup Brossoit (2.42, .915%, 1.5 GSAA) was as good as the Jets offense was bad in Round One, while current Oiler starter Skinner (3.43, .890%, -1.1 GSAA) is the worst goalie standing out west. But the Oilers aren’t the Jets, and Vegas (49.2% CF/48.83% Fenwick vs. Winnipeg) can’t win another round with negative possession numbers. My prediction: they won’t. Edmonton in six.

Norris Division

North Stars-Kraken: Oettinger (2.01, .929%, 4.3 GSAA) was the first star in Games 4, 5, and 6 against the Wild. Grubauer (2.44, .926%, 2.9 GSAA) was the best goalie in the west who wasn’t Jake Oettinger. He’s still not Jake Oettinger—my Round One Conn Smythe (or any replacement non-racist) pick—nor do the Kraken, arguably a deeper team, have a Robertson, Hintz, or Pavelski (who is day-to-day) up front. They may not even have a McCann. Dallas in six.

Patrick Division

Whalers-Devils: The Devils replaced their nominal starter after two disaster starts (4.43, .827%) and beat the Rangers with the goalie who should have been their number one to begin with (1.38, .951%, 4.5 GSAA). The Hurricanes replaced their co-number one after five not-horrible games (2.59, .906%, 0.4 GSAA) and beat the Islanders with Frederik Andersen, a sub-replacement-level goalie (-3.5 GSAA in 2022-2023). If Kochetkov starts, the Hurricanes have a chance, even without Svechnikov (and Pacioretty and possibly Teravainen), but I wouldn’t take those odds. New Jersey in six.

Adams Division

Leafs-Panthers: The last Canucks left in the playoffs are Jared McCann, Ben Hutton, Curtis Lazar, Jalen Chatfield, and Luke Schenn. Of those five, Lazar and Schenn have the best shot at a Cup and Schenn has the best shot to actually play (Lazar was a healthy scratch for three of the seven games against the Rangers, including Game Seven). Win one for Schenn! The Leafs could make this a closer series than it has to be with bad goaltending (see Gene Ubriaco’s Theory of Goaltending), and we may yet see Secret Weapon Joseph Woll, but “Bob” (3.91, .891%, -0.2 GSAA) hardly stole the Bruins series for the Panthers himself and is unlikely to steal this one. Toronto in five.

Statistics courtesy of Moneypuck.

NHL Playoff Picks 2023: Round One

Resurrecting an old opportunity to be wrong every year, not to mention an opportunity to reference the Dave Hannah Theory of Goaltending (pick the team with the better goalie in each matchup) as updated by the JFresh Theory of Goaltending (goaltending is basically random from season to season) and modified by the Joe Sheehan Theory of Small Sample Sizes (variance swamps everything…so how can we know who the better goalie will be before the fact in a seven-game series?), here are my Round One playoff picks. Full disclosure and sneak preview: my preseason finals pick was Colorado over Carolina. As of two weeks ago, my finals pick was New Jersey over Seattle. It will probably be Edmonton over Boston before it all fades to black. 

Smythe Division

Arguably, the best non-Oilers in this division are on the outside looking in (Karlsson, Petersson, Hughes, Keller, some random Flames players who were better a year ago). With that said:

Golden Knights-Jets: One of these teams has the best goalie in the world who isn’t Russian or Swedish and the other team has Laurent Brossoit and ex-Blue Jacket Jonathan Quick, who has two Stanley Cup rings and a goals saved “above” average of -68.4 since 2018. The Jets, not a great possession team in recent years, were better than even this year (51.57% 5v5 Corsi For); the Golden Knights weren’t (48.18%). In fact, Vegas was the worst possession team to make the playoffs; among the other playoff teams, only the Wild, Rangers, and Islanders were (barely) below 50%. If Winnipeg were playing Colorado or Dallas or Edmonton or even Seattle, Hellebuyck wouldn’t matter. Lucky for them, they’re playing Vegas. Winnipeg in six.

Oilers-Kings: Pheonix “Autocorrect” Copley was the Kings’ Michael Leighton this year, but Joonas Korpisalo (7-3-1, 2.13, .921%, SO with LA) should be the Game One starter and is the best goalie in this series based on this year’s numbers. This series shouldn’t be about goaltending, though.*** Even if it is, Skinner should be more than enough for Edmonton to advance, given their depth up front and on D and the fact that their goal differential this season actually looked like that of a 100-point team (+65, the second-best in the West; LA’s was +23). Edmonton in five.

***Just for fun, and without adjusting for era: number of 100-point seasons, Lindros/Forsberg/Crosby/Ovechkin combined: 12 (in 62 total combined seasons). Number of 100-point seasons, Connor McDavid: 6 (in 8 total seasons). He’s halfway there. For the record, Mario Lemieux had 10, so McDavid is more than halfway there, too.

Norris Division

Nordiques-Kraken: Without Makar for 22 games, without MacKinnon for 11 games, without Landeskog for the season, without Nichushkin for 29 games (9 more than he missed last season), the Avs still won the division, though by a closer margin than a year ago. Everyone will be back for the playoffs except for Landeskog, who was fourth in playoff scoring last year (11-11-22). The problem isn’t Landeskog, who is nominally replaced by Evan Rodrigues, but the Avs’ opponent. Seattle was the best possession team in the West (52.73% 5v5 Corsi For) who wasn’t the Flames this season, though the difference between the Kraken at fifth and Colorado at eighth is percentage points. These teams are closer than it looks, not just in possession but in penalties taken and drawn, regulation wins (the Kraken have one more), goals for, and even the standings (nine points). The difference is goaltending; Seattle gave up 30 more goals than the Avs and it wasn’t a fluke. Georgiev gave Colorado top-ten goaltending, while neither Grubauer nor Jones (nor, for that matter, Joey Daccord, the only Seattle goalie with a .900 save percentage, who had four starts) was even replacement-level. The Kraken have upset potential, but even the 1994 Sharks had Irbe. Sometimes it is all about the goaltending. Colorado in six.

Former North Stars- North Stars: Dallas was the tenth-best possession team; Minnesota was 20th. The Stars also had the better power play and the better penalty kill, scored more goals, and gave up fewer goals. Gustavsson was great, but so was Oettinger. The Wild were a 100-point team for the second year in a row—their 103 points were actually 10 points worse than a year ago—and they haven’t finished below .500 since 2012, but they also haven’t won a playoff series since 2015. They won’t this year either. Dallas in five.

Patrick Division

Whalers-Islanders: Sebastian Aho vs. Sebastian Aho. The Hurricanes were the best possession team in the league (60.38% 5v5 Corsi For); the Islanders weren’t close (49.73%). On the other hand, Sorokin gave New York Vezina-level goaltending all year, while Carolina was more or less replacement-level, dragged down by Andersen; the Hurricanes’ best goalie by the numbers, Kochetkov, won’t even play in this series, barring an injury (although see 2022 playoffs). Even with Andersen in net, though, the Hurricanes are the deeper team top to bottom. Sorokin and Horvat (and, conversely, Andersen) will make this closer than it should be, but Hurricanes in seven.

Devils-Rangers: Déjà vu: the Devils were the fourth-best possession team in the league; the Rangers weren’t close (in fact, they were virtually tied with the Islanders). On the other hand, Shesterkin gave New York Vezina-level goaltending last year and top-five goaltending this year even with the dropoff; the Devils goalies were better than expected but, like the Hurricanes, their best goalie by the numbers, Akira Schmid, is their #3 barring an injury. I can never count out the Rangers—it’s the goaltending, after all—but the Devils look like the better team top to bottom to me and that will be the difference. New Jersey in six.

Adams Division

Bruins-Panthers: So the Bruins aren’t the 1976-77 Canadiens and Linus Ullmark isn’t the second coming of Dominik Hasek or even, maybe, Ilya Sorokin. Boston was second in goals, first in goals against, and first in goal differential at +127, almost doubling second-place Edmonton’s, not to mention the Panthers’ +16. Florida is the better possession team, and the difference between these teams is closer than the 43 points in the standings would suggest, but when Alex Lyon is your X-Factor, you’re in trouble. Boston in six.

Leafs-Lightning: Toronto is the better team and there’s more of a gap here than there was a year ago. If the Leafs lose, it will have nothing to do with the fact that they’re The Leafs (what Leafs? more than half the roster from the 2020 team that was upset by the Blue Jackets is gone and no one from the 2013 team that blew the 4-1 lead to the Bruins is still a Leaf; only four members of that 2013 team are still in the league) but will come down to goaltending. Vasilevskiy, like Shesterkin, wasn’t as good this year but is still the better goalie in this series, whoever ends up in the other net. I actually like the Leafs’ chances better with Woll, the (more) unknown commodity, than with Samsonov, and it would not surprise me to see the Leafs win a short series whether it’s Woll, Samsonov, Murray, Källgren, maybe even Vesa Toskala—they are the better team—but I’ll go with Dave Hannah on this one. Tampa in seven.

MLB Non-Preview 2023

Writer Friend (and Rangers Fan) Rob Formerly in Iowa, Now in Texas wrote almost two weeks ago:

Opening Day snuck up on me. But I’m overjoyed to be on Mother Earth for another season with my usual insane loser predictions:

AL East
1. Toronto 94-68: Chapman… big mystery that needs solving.
2. Baltimore 85-77: Lindy Sports calls Mountcastle a one-dimensional liability. Bullshit.
3. Tampa Bay 81-81: Stay healthy, Franco.
4. New York 80-82: This is what happens with all your balls on one basket.
5. Boston 72-90: You gotta ask what Justin Turner is thinking: it’s cold and it’s losing.

AL Central
1. Cleveland 100-62: A cakewalk.
2. Kansas City 75-87: Jordan Lyles gets another chance… deserved by the way.
3. Detroit 73-89: If they’re worse than this, it’s Baez’s fault.
4. Minnesota 72-90: Was there really a welcome-back for Correa?
5. Chicago White 71-91: The franchise (and the glue that held it together) is gone.

AL West
1. Los Angeles Halos 90-72: Super dangerous in a short series…. Problem is…
2. Texas Rangers 87-75: I just want Josh Smith to find a place to play… anywhere.
3. Seattle 86-76: Can’t believe they gave up on Haniger.
4. Houston 84-78: Altuve the only competitive Classic casualty. Gee, I wonder why.
5. Oakland 57-105: Puk returns to Neverland

ALDS: LA over Cleveland, Toronto over Texas

ALCS: LA over Toronto

NL East
1. Philadelphia 92-70: Schwarber has become a folk hero… and that’s really cool.
2. Atlanta 90-72: I would have re-signed Duvall.
3. Miami 78-84: And all that Jazz.
4. Washington 75-87: Unlike Congress, they’ll be fun.
5. New York Mets 74-88: $350,000,000 would buy a lot of school lunches.

NL Central
1. Pittsburgh 88-74: Ji Man and prospects make them the new ’surprise.’
2. St Louis 87-75: A free-agent team with holes.
3. Cincinnati 75-87: Moose still on the loose.
4. Milwaukee 74-88: Winker tries again.
5. Chicago Cubs 68-94: Does anyone care anymore?

NL West
1. Arizona 91-71: Walker a break-out MVP. Longo is 38… geez.
2. San Diego 86-76: there is no gel with these guys… a welcome mat for Tatis?  Really?
3. Los Angeles Dodgers 85-77: Muncy now at 3rd… that’s really weird.
4. San Francisco 79-83: Conforto/Yaz/Haniger outfield ain’t Judge but kinda cool nevertheless.
5. Colorado 65-97: No idea why but I really want Blackmon to get a crew cut.

NLDS: Phillies over Pirates, Cardinals over DBacks

NLCS: Phillies over Cardinals

World Series: Phillies over Angels in 7

I wrote back a mere 10 days ago:

Working backwards from your predictions:

NL

The West (is the best)

One of these years, the Dodgers will win 85 and it may be this year. I’m with you on the top three but would probably end up Padres-Dodgers-Arizona. There are three MVP candidates in this division and two of them are Padres. Also, I’m not picking Walker Buehler to win the Cy Young this season.

The Central

My default team that would finish fourth in the AL East and win this division is the Cardinals, The obvious MVP candidates in this division are all Cardinals. Milwaukee won’t be far behind just on the pitching, unless it’s injured, in which case St. Louis could be the only .500 team in the division now that they won’t play each other as much.

The East

I wouldn’t have picked the Phillies *before* they lost Hoskins for the season, with Harper missing a few months and Ranger Suarez TBD. They were an 87-win team last year and I have them at 81-81 this year (before I read Joe’s predictions). On the other hand, I had them at 81-81 both before and after the Hoskins injury, so maybe I’m just a Darick Hall fan. The Braves run away with the division in September, or sooner if Verlander and some other veteran Mets miss any time. I will believe the Marlins can reach 80 wins once the Marlins reach 80 wins, and I may lower the first number to 75.

The Braves win 101 games. No one else tops 96 (Padres). No one loses more than 101 (Reds I guess, though I agree with Joe that I would rather be the Reds than the Rockies).

I won’t make any individual award picks other than that it would be funny (meaning not funny) if Turner wins MVP, Wheeler wins the Cy Young, and the Phillies win 81 and miss the playoffs again. There’s probably a Vegas line for that and I would gladly take it.

AL

The West

Oakland will be bad but not as bad as a team trying not to win should be and the Angels won’t be “bad” but will be “bad for a team with Ohtani and Trout” bad. Seattle wins the division, Houston comes close and is a wild card, the Rangers are probably worse than the Angels but it wouldn’t totally shock me if they aren’t.

The Central

I don’t know what the odds are on the Twins winning this division but I would take them. You won’t need to win 100; the low 90s or even possibly high 80s will be enough. I will say Twins-White Sox-Guardians-Royals-Tigers but my top four could be within 10 games of each other (randomly, 91-88-85-81). The Tigers, though.

The East

I would also take the odds on the Yankees, mostly because of who *wasn’t* on the team last season: callups and/or trades that work out. In fact, at the moment, Yankees-Mariners would probably be my ALCS pick and that would be a coin toss as far as I’m concerned. The Red Sox and Orioles are my basement that isn’t that bad–the floor in this division is 71-75 wins, but a competitive 71-75 wins. My top three are Yankees-Blue Jays-Rays, in that order.

ALCS: Yankees-Mariners

NLCS: Braves-Cardinals

World Series: no one I’m rooting for unless it’s the Mariners

Let the games begin (they already did)!

Kyle Farnsworth (101 ERA+) would, in fact, have been a contender

With Kyle Gibson’s Phillies career now only past tense–as that 9.73 September/October ERA (31 runs in 28.2 IP with 47 hits allowed; opponents batted .364/.410/.612, basically mid-career Todd Helton with less OBP) would have predicted–we can compare how the contenders for the Phillies’ Worst Kyle Pitching Award*** are doing.

***Pitching Award. Kyle Garlick, you’re safe. Kyle Schwarber and Leonard Kyle Dykstra, you wouldn’t even make the cut for other reasons (a lack of being bad). 

And it’s not even close. Both the Worst Kyle and the Least Worst Kyle are obvious from the old school numbers, never mind the fancy stats.

The worst Kyle was, and remains, the first Kyle, the reason why the Von Hayes trade would be a wash (Hayes went .225/.305/.326, 78 OPS+ before being released in August by the 1992 Angels), were it not for the inclusion of Ruben Amaro, who went .333/.400/.521 for the pennant-winning 1993 Phillies, then brought them “that Heathcliff Slocumb” (Harry Kalas voice) from Cleveland that November.

Despite being the Antichrist, the best Kyle (discounting the small sample size from Lohse) was Kendrick, the only Kyle to pitch a complete game (four!) and a complete game shutout (two!) for the Phillies, the only Kyle to start a postseason game (where he was relieved by another Kyle! who promptly gave up a grand slam to the second baseman, who had four home runs all season PLAYING IN COLORADO), and the only Kyle to last more than two seasons with the Phillies. Kyle Kendrick wins the Least Worst Kyle Pitching Award by default.***

***True, Gibson did have the lower FIP–but in 900 fewer innings. Kendrick has the volume, without even reaching the “FIP doesn’t measure what actually happened” argument, which would also be relevant here, but which could even out over 900 innings anyway.

Career-wise, though, both Kendrick and Abbott peaked with the Phillies (sadly, 3-14, 4.90 was a “peak”):

Gibson and Kendrick are now tied in career winning percentage. In fact, with a few more 2018 Twin or 2021 Ranger seasons in him now that he’s back in the AL with Baltimore, Gibson may yet pass Lohse (who pitched until he was 37, three years older than Gibson is now) in bWAR and even strikeouts among ex-Phillies Kyles. (Wins and innings are out of the question, as are complete games. It’s a different ballgame 15 years later, literally.) He may never win a World Series, but at least Gibson can tell the ghost of Kyle Kendrick and maybe even Kyle Lohse, “Rip bozo”

Pray for rain

Scott Franzke on the Padres’ signing of Vince Velasquez: “Two-fifths of the Padres’ starting rotation is now made up of former Phillies….Vince Velasquez and Jake Arrieta.”

Larry Andersen: “[exhales]…Good luck….Go get ’em.”

Padres Twitter reacts to the signing of Vince Velasquez

Alvarado (why don’t you come to your senses), or, what it means to be a Phillies fan, in 2021 and perpetually

Scott Franzke (after Jose Alvarado hits Ian Happ, wild pitches him to second with one out in the 8th): “Alvarado had a stretch earlier this year where he actually went 4 games without a freebie…no walks, no hit batters.”

Larry Andersen: “4 games without a walk.”

Franzke: “or a hit batter.”

LA: “You gotta figure, 4 games, that’s what, like, 4 innings?”

Franzke: “2 2/3.”

LA: “Yeah.”

***

LA: “This is just the third hitter this inning…It seems like he’s been out there about a half hour.”

Alvarado: (gives up two-run, game-tying home run to Robinson Chirinos)

Alvarado: (hits Alfonso Rivas)

Phillies: (challenge the HBP call, lose, replace Alvarado with Archie Bradley)

Bradley: (gets second out, hits Willson Contreras, gets third out)

***

Phillies: (lead off bottom of the 8th with J.T. Realmuto home run to take 5-4 lead)

Cubs: (lead off bottom of the 9th with game-tying Matt Duffy home run off Ian Kennedy)

Franzke: “And this is a tie game.”

LA: “This is a state of emergency.”

LA: “That’s, what, 7 home runs in 14 2/3 innings for Kennedy as a Phillie?”

***

And this was a game they won.

The #Phillies are now up to 31 blown saves this year, but who’s counting?

Only NL teams with more blown saves in a season since 1969:

2004 Rockies 34 (MLB record)
2016 Giants 32
1973 Braves 32

— Jayson Stark (@jaysonst) September 16, 2021

We want the blown saves record at this point, right? There’s no point in being this terrible if we aren’t the most terrible.

— Sixto Lezcano (@mleif) September 16, 2021

NHL 2021: North Division preview

I doubt I will be writing season previews for the other three divisions between now and Wednesday, when the season begins, mostly because I’m a Canucks fan and I only care about Canadian teams and Gritty (who is not actually a team).**

**I root for the Flyers, too, sometimes.

But the North Division is fascinating; it’s like an Original Six, but with seven teams. (In fact, the North has the same number of Original Six teams–two–as the East and Central do. The North is actually more like the pre-Original Six-era All Canadian NHL, with the Vancouver Millionaires and those Ottawa Senators and two other teams who just happen to be the Oilers and Flames rather than the Quebec Bulldogs and Montreal Wanderers.) It’s also fascinating because there are no clear rankings other than Ottawa in the basement. Some so-called hockey experts are picking Montreal to finish first! I am not an expert nor am I picking Montreal to finish first (or second, or third, or fourth, or fifth–I may regret this).

My rankings (* = playoff teams, because the top four make it, just like back in the glorious Smythe Division days):

1. Toronto*: will win this division because the Leafs have the most talent: The veterans (Thornton, Simmonds, Brodie, Bogosian) will help, but without them last year, Toronto was third in expected goals for at even strength and fourth in expected goals against. Frederik Andersen wasn’t that good last season. I think he will be better this year and the Leafs will be just good enough to not only win the North but win a playoff round. (Of course, I have them playing Winnipeg.)

2. Calgary*: not because they signed every Vancouver Canuck free agent***–Markstrom’s 2019-2020 was a career year, and I expect him to be better than both Demko and Holtby this year, but he may be worse than last year’s Jacob Markstrom–but because so many of their forwards had off years last year. The Flames were sixth in expected goals for at even strength but 20th in goals. That should change.

***For the record, Troy Stecher signed with Detroit. Also, the Canucks did sign a Calgary Flame free agent (Travis Hamonic).

3. Edmonton*: The narrative is that Draisatl and McDavid will score less and focus on defense more, the team will follow, and Holland will replace Mike Smith with a dependable goalie mid-season. The Oilers were a bad possession team last year; only the three New York City-ish teams and a last-in-everything Red Wings were worse than Edmonton’s 47.9% CF5v5. Tyson Barrie will help (though losing Oscar Klefbom won’t).

4. Winnipeg*: The Jets were also a bad possession team with a mediocre offense which was also outchanced more than any team except the Devils and Red Wings (46.2% scoring chances for); they were dead last in high-danger scoring chances against vs. for (42.7%). Which is why Connor Hellebuyck (league-leading 58 games played, 1796 shots against, 1656 saves, 6 shutouts, and 12.5 goalie point shares; third in the league in Goals Saved Above Average behind only Tuukka Rask and Anton Khudobin) won the Vezina Trophy and the Jets made the qualifying round. In the offseason, the Jets lost no one better than Cody Eakin, whom they barely had to begin with, and signed Paul Stastny. If the 2019-2020 Jets were a playoff team (sort of), the 2020-2021 Jets are a playoff team.

5. Vancouver: The Canucks don’t have to be worse–Nate Schmidt replaces Tanev, a full season of anything close to THAT Thatcher Demko and a normal year of Braden Holtby can replace Markstrom, Nils Höglander can replace Leivo, Hamonic replaces Oscar Fantenberg, and when you think about it, Tyler Toffoli really replaced Brock Boeser so I guess Brock Boeser now replaces Tyler Toffoli–and Elias Pettersson, who is somehow only 21, can somehow be better, but this is a tough division for Vancouver, who won only 5 of 15 games against the rest of Canada last season and was outscored 50-36. (The Canucks have not won in Winnipeg since 2014.) Vancouver was also out-possessioned and out-chanced last season.

6. Montreal: should be a sleeper team. The Habs had good possession numbers and bad outcomes on offense last year (second in CF%5v5, second in expected goals for, 18th in goals). Their defense was worse (ninth in goals against, 25th in expected goals against). In the offseason, they added Jake Allen as a backup to Carey Price plus Tyler Toffoli and Josh When Healthy Anderson up front and Joel Edmundson on D and lost only Max Domi, Keith Kinkaid, and the Dutch Gretzky. But all of that just makes Montreal a tougher opponent. I don’t know how much better than last season’s 31-31-9 it makes them in this division. It will, however, continue to make them better than

7. Ottawa: the consensus worst team in the division, who is also probably better than they were a year ago (when they were–barely–a better even strength possession team than the Oilers; I expect that will change). Any improvement will come from the Tkachuks, Chabots, Stuetzles and Sandersons, though. The only goalies who had a worse Goals Saved Above Average (or Goals Not Saved, because it’s a negative number) than Matt Murray last season were Martin Jones, Mike Smith, Braden Holtby, Jimmy Howard, Sergei Bobrovsky, and Louis Domingue. (Anderson, Hogberg, and Nilsson were all better for Ottawa.)

The MVPs so far

I prefer not to do awards until the season is over, not because awards are won or lost in September—narratives notwithstanding, awards are won or lost in October, when voters vote—but because the season is only 83% complete, and the other 17% matters, in some cases more than others (hello Mike Trout, AL MVP since about July 1). But I can be convinced (H/T, Writer Friend Rob in Austin).

AL Cy Young: Gerrit Cole’s 15-5, 2.81, 266 K’s in 176.1 innings, leading the league in strikeouts for the top team in the AL who isn’t the Yankees, would normally be enough. Charlie Morton (14-6, 3.06, 209 K’s in 170.1 innings) leads the league in fielding-independent ERA (2.80) and fewest HRs per 9 (0.7). But even without the no-hitter, this is Justin Verlander’s (17-5, 2.56, 257 K’s in 193 innings, leading the league in ERA and innings and tied in wins) award to lose.
(Worth mentioning: Mike Minor is 12-8, 3.12 with 180 K’s in 181.2 innings. He also leads all pitchers in Wins Above Replacement with 7.7 and is second in all of baseball to Mike Trout. Am I underrating Mike Minor because he plays in a hitter’s park or because the defense behind him is so bad? Maybe, or maybe not. But his fielding-independent ERA is 3.88—more than half a run worse than his actual ERA. I don’t think Mike Minor is the best pitcher in baseball this year, and I don’t think he is among the top three pitchers in the AL this year either. He is having an awfully good year, though.)
My votes: 1. Verlander 2. Cole 3. Morton

AL MVP: This is a tough choice. I honestly don’t know who the second-best AL player is this year after Trout. Actually, I’m joking; it’s Verlander. The tough choice is the runnerup to the runnerup. The Santana (career-high 4.4 WAR at age 33) and Cruz (3.7 WAR at age 38—amazingly, his second-LOWEST since he turned 33—and a career-high .631 SLG) narratives are both impressive, if only on offense (both are worth -0.8 dWAR). The numbers say it’s Bregman. You can make an argument for Bogaerts.  Did you know Rafael Devers leads the league in RBIs? I did not.
(I will pause here to note that Santana’s amazing comeback year and Year Five of Cruz’s amazing comeback career are, according to Baseball Reference, worth a total of 8.5 WAR. Mike Trout himself is worth 8.3 WAR. Or, to use the “Wayne and Brent Gretzky are the highest-scoring brother combination in NHL history” metric, Mike Trout and former Phillies reliever and current teammate Luis Garcia (0.4 WAR) are a more valuable combination than Carlos Santana and Nelson Cruz.)
My votes: 1. Trout 2. Verlander 3. Bregman

AL ROY: The best rookies in both leagues this year may not be the rookies with the most at-bats. Yordan Alvarez is batting .317/.413/.671 (3.0 WAR) for the Astros in only 240 ABs—160 fewer than the Rays’ Brandon Lowe (22 HR, .262/.334/.500, 3.6 WAR). More relevant, Lowe is 24, Alvarez is 22, plus Lowe is (re-)injured and will miss the rest of the season. When it’s close, and Lowe’s injury will make it even closer, I will take the better projected rest of career (who is often but not always the younger player) over the better current season. Alvarez could be both.
My votes: 1. Alvarez 2. Lowe 3. John Means 

AL MOY: The manager of the year is either the team who overperformed preseason expectations the most or the team who overperformed their underlying numbers the most. If it’s the former, it’s Rocco Baldelli (pause to note that I picked the Twins to win the division). If it’s the latter, it’s the Yankees (8.8 wins better than their 3rd order win percentage according to Baseball Prospectus’s adjusted standings). How much of “overperforming your underlying numbers” is luck and/or a good bullpen (which is also luck, unless you have Mariano Rivera)? The unluckiest team in the AL by this measure is, believe it or not, the Astros (7.1 wins worse than their underlying numbers—yes, they should actually be 99-43 rather than 92-50).
My votes: 1. Baldelli 2. Boone 3. Bob Melvin

NL Cy Young: It’s a weird year. Hyun-Jin Ryu led the league in ERA for most of the season and, believe it or not, still does, but he’s trending the wrong direction at the wrong time (pre-All Star break: 10-2, 1.73 vs. post-All Star break: 2-3, 3.93). Max Scherzer leads the league in strikeouts per 9 and is third in ERA but has only pitched 148.2 innings, almost 40 behind the league leader, who bizarrely is never-healthy teammate Stephen Strasburg, who also leads the league with 16 wins and 222 strikeouts in his 185 innings. My vote is actually none of the above but, rather, defending Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom, whose raw run support is better than in 2018 (3.89, up from 3.53) but whose relative run support is not (tied for 64th, down from 57th) and whose actual ERA (2.76) and fielding-independent ERA (2.86) are both half a run better than Strasburg’s, while deGrom’s 176 innings and 220 strikeouts are just slightly behind. The object of pitching is to allow as few runs in as many innings as possible. deGrom does it better. (But I would have voted for Scherzer had he pitched enough innings. It’s a weird year.)
My votes: 1. deGrom 2. Strasburg 3. Scherzer 

NL MVP: Cody Bellinger and Christian Yelich are #1-2 in OPS, SLG, and WAR (Ketel Marte is actually tied with Yelich for 2nd), are tied for 2nd in home runs, one behind Pete Alonso, and are #1 and 3 in OBP (Anthony Rendon is 2nd). I would have no objection to co-MVPs. If I had to pick one, WAR says Bellinger has been 1.6 wins better on the basis of his defense (1.6 dWAR vs. Yelich’s -0.6 dWAR). It’s enough.
(Note: One of these years, Nolan, one of these years. And Anthony. And Ronald Acuña Jr. is only 21 and already has 9.1 career WAR.)
My votes: 1. Bellinger 2. Yelich 3. Rendon

NL ROY: The rookie with the most WAR in all of baseball won’t have the most at-bats because he’s a pitcher: Mike Soroka (5.3 WAR and counting), but pitcher WAR is suspect because of ballpark and team defense factoring (see Mike Minor comment above). If we exclude pitchers, Alonso is the obvious choice—he’s leading the NL in homers—but not necessarily the best choice. Fernando Tatis Jr. is two years younger, playing a key defensive position and playing it better (0.2 dWAR as a shortstop vs. Alonso’s -1.4 dWAR as a first baseman, and Alonso is being compared to other first basemen, folks). As a result, Tatis is close to Alonso in WAR (4.1 vs. 4.6) despite 175 fewer at-bats. But playing time counts. Alonso has played a full season, Tatis hasn’t. My money is on Tatis for the better career, so normally I would pick him, but I can’t ignore the difference between 138 games played and 84.
My votes: 1. Alonso 2. Tatis 3. Soroka

NL MOY: The Nationals lost Bryce Harper in the offseason and Max Scherzer for six starts, but the team who overperformed preseason expectations the most might be the Diamondbacks. The team who overperformed their underlying numbers the most is the Braves (an MLB-leading 10.3 wins better than their “true” record of 78-64, which would have them trailing a somewhat-unlucky Nationals team who should really be 79-61); the Phillies, who have a negative run differential but are 8.3 wins better than their “true” record of 64-76, are second-luckiest. (I have watched Gabe Kapler juggling a bullpen down Seranthony Dominguez, David Robertson, Pat Neshek, Tommy Hunter, Adam Morgan, and Victor Arano for most of the season, which totally ignores the loss of Andrew McCutchen. This seems right.) The unluckiest teams are the Reds (9.3 wins worse than their “true” record—at 75-67, they would be three games back of the Cardinals for the division) and, amazingly, the Dodgers (9.2 wins worse, meaning they are underachieving at 92-51 and should really be 101-42; I guess they should fire Roberts?).
My votes: 1. Lovullo 2. Martinez 3. Snitker (Note: You could honestly rank them in reverse order. Or give it to Kapler. I really don’t care.)