If Bill James Is Wrong, I Don’t Want To Be Right


From today’s Hey Bill:

While I would probably have used Britton in that situation myself, the media blasting Showalter for not doing so, and saying it cost them the game are reaching, aren’t they?  

There’s no guarantee that Britton doesn’t get a similar result, and there’s no way to know the final result even if he got them out of the inning.  At worst he cost them a 50/50 opportunity to win, assuming Britton is successful.  

Am I missing something?

Asked by: Christopher

Answered: 10/6/2016

 Well. ..certainly looks different 24 hours later.   The Mets DID use their closer.   And that didn’t work, either.  

Of course there are no guarantees—but:

Britton 2016: 0.54 ERA, 1.94 FIP, 2.09 xFIP, 2.5 fWAR, 9.94 K/9, 2.42 BB/9, 0.836 WHIP, 47/47 SV (67 IP)

Familia 2016: 2.55 ERA, 2.39 FIP, 3.03 xFIP, 2.2 fWAR, 9.73 K/9, 3.59 BB/9, 1.210 WHIP, 51/56 SV (77 2/3 IP)

Blue Jays 11th inning: Carrera-Travis-Donaldson (9-1-2)

Giants 9th inning: Crawford-Pagan-Panik (5-6-7)

One was near-perfect this year and would have faced the top of the lineup (or, once Travis and Donaldson reached, the heart of the order).

The other was less perfect this year and was facing the middle of the order, losing the game on a three-run home run to the 8-hole hitter.

No, Ubaldo Jimenez is no Zach Britton.  But in 2016, neither is Jeurys Familia.

Photo courtesy of Flickr.


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