A few words on Moneyball

Somehow, I never watched Moneyball: The Movie before Friday night, when a friend burned me a copy (word to the MPAA).

Uncannily, a wise and knowing baseball guru acquaintance (a.k.a. “Rob in Iowa”) wrote me out of the blue the same night—probably as I was watching Moneyball: The Movie, in fact– urging me, whatever else I do, to watch Moneyball: The Movie. Preferably more than once.

So we exchanged a few e-mails.

From: Rob in Iowa
Sent: Friday, January 20, 2012 11:29 PM
Subject: moneyball
Baseball is a national treasure – and so is Moneyball. If you haven’t already, take 2 hours and see it. Maybe 4. I repeated right away.

From: dejesus54@comcast.net
Sent: Saturday, January 21, 2012 10:44 AM
Subject: Re: moneyball
Oddly enough, I watched it last night for the first time– a friend just burned it for me. Not enough Jeremy Brown (the catcher who didn’t know he hit the home run), but an excellent, thoughtful, sad but hopeful film. One of the better baseball films in recent years, if not ever (& I’m a Kevin Costner fan too*).

On a personal/local note, I love that the one human counterexample of the “Billy Beane only cares about numbers” argument was trading Jeremy Giambi to the Phillies (in exchange for John Mabry) for not giving a fuck. BaseballReference tells me he actually hit .244/.435/.538 for the Phils in 156 at bats (52 walks!!) for an OPS+ of 162 (100 is league average), even better than I remembered, and was such a fucking asshole they still couldn’t wait to trade him to Boston for Josh Hancock, who would pitch 12 innings of 7.50 ERA for them over two forgettable seasons.

(Of course, this was the Ed Wade years. The Phillies couldn’t wait to trade just about anyone on their roster for a borderline reliever.)

According to Twitter, Joe Posnanski recently watched Moneyball on video with his wife, whose response was: “Was Ricardo Rincon good??”

On a related note, now I can actually allow myself to read this:
http://joeposnanski.blogspot.com/2011/09/moneyball-movie.html

* more so Bull Durham, honestly, but Field of Dreams is up there

From: Rob in Iowa
Sent: Sunday, January 22, 2012 8:52 AM
Subject: Re: moneyball
Many many thanks for your latest to include Posnanski. Been thinking about the movie. No one has made mention with regards to the ‘boys club’ mentality that permeates throughout. Had to be intentional. The woman were all ‘get me so and so ‘ on the line – ‘is the coffee ready’ etc. Scott’s wife waits in the kitchen while her future is decided by ‘guys’ on the couch. And finally the kicker — if we’ve somehow missed the prelude; that whole weird ‘scarf present’ scene with the Red Sox guy – a millionaire owner who doesn’t know where to buy one. It’s a 1950′s ‘women in the home’ thing. I’m thinking they bent the movie that way cause that’s the way it is in baseball.

Calling Scott Boras an asshole on the phone. Giving ‘players for hire to the highest bidder’ like Johnny Damon (“you’re better off without him on the payroll”) a twitch in the ass. Two moments of sublime satisfaction.

Was the metaphor at the end with the catcher made up by the writers or did that actually happen? I truly loved the way the first baseman bent over and circled his finger, then gave him a pat on the butt to get him on his way towards second. Despite all the assholes, the cringe inducing salaries ( so cheap at $275,000?), the game somehow always wins.

From: dejesus54@comcast.net
Sent: Sunday, January 22, 2012 6:14 PM
Subject: Re: moneyball
Jeremy Brown was one human, walking metaphor from what I recall. So yeah, it’s true.

Yeah on everything you wrote. $275,000 ain’t cheap for most folks, but I would rather ballplayers than Wall Street CEOs…or ExxonMobil CEOs….or record label CEOs (“If you don’t own the masters, the Master owns you,” in the immortal words of Chuck D)….or any CEOs, for that matter. Occupying Citizens Bank Park is still pretty low on my list of places to occupy.

(Insert my usual rant about how we should roll the tax brackets back to 1960s levels, so it wouldn’t matter if we pay a declining ARod $33M a year because he’d owe 90 percent of it back in taxes….)

The scarf thing was excellent in a small, almost unnoticeable way too. Millionaire owners, most millionaires I would gather, are that clueless about how the world works when they’re not just delegating someone else to work it for them. And scarves as ornamental rather than just utilitarian as some novel concept? Fenway in October can be mighty cold, but not THAT cold. There are many uses for scarves, just ask John the Baptist.

From: Rob in Iowa
Sent: Monday, January 23, 2012 11:06 AM
Subject: Re: moneyball
Moneyball is aptly titled. The only scene missing is the haggard fan at the concession, two wide-eyed preteens in tow; hanging onto two dogs, two Pepsis, one pennant, and one logo cap — while forking over $85 hard earned bucks.

The above would have nestled in comfortably alongside 7 mil Justice whining over a dollar-a-pop.

photo: Morris Kantor, “Baseball at Night” (1934)

Hockey injury of the millennium

“He had an unfortunate incident with, uh, a pop tart which burned his hand, believe it or not, so he was ‘oat with second-degree burns…I guess he burnt it and, uh, I guess he let it there, he kept it in there too long &, uh, the jelly came ‘oat &, um, burned his hand…like, the burns were pretty legit, like, I saw them with, like, they put him out for, what, like, a good week.”
–Oklahoma City Barons (AHL) coach Todd Nelson re: injured winger Gilbert Brule, interviewed on Edmonton’s Team 1260 Nation Radio, 1/8/2012

A terrible irony for a hockey player already named after a baked good.

Worship Stan

End of the first quarter, Orlando down 7 at Golden State.

Someone from TNT asks Magic coach Stan Van Gundy, what does your team need to do better in the second quarter?

Stan Van Gundy (scowling): “We have to try. We have to make an effort.”

TNT reporter (somewhat incredulous): “…so you’re– not trying now– ?”

Stan Van Gundy (scowling): “Not even close.” (walks away furious)

& the Magic won, 117-109. Orlando is now 8-3, losing only to the 10-2 Thunder, the 10-2 Bulls, and (oops) the 3-9 Pistons.

I love Stan Van Gundy.

XLVII

Happy 47th, Jose Luis de Jesus. Wherever you may be.

Random NFL playoff picks 2012

I’m normally a non-football fan, so I’m only working with point differentials, home advantages (or lack thereof), & luck:

Detroit (+87) at New Orleans (+208)
Without taking quality of competition into account, New Orleans had the best raw point differential in the NFL by a touchdown over the 15-1 Packers. Drew Brees also ended up second in QB rating (am I quoting the football equivalent of pitcher wins or saves here?) and first in total passing yards; Matt Stafford was fifth and third. I will buck the numbers here and go with Detroit in a close one for no real reason. 38-35 Lions.

New York Giants (-6) at Atlanta (+52)
Two close QB ratings (Manning 92.9, Ryan 92.2) and a Giants team that won a weak division despite a point differential 74 points worse than the Eagles (yeah). But I’ll still take the Giants here, 24-21.

Pittsburgh (+98) at Denver (-81)
I’m tempted to take Denver in a Seattle-over-New-Orleans-2011-type upset, and the Steelers aren’t as scary as they once were, and Denver is at home, but with due respect to R.E.M., Pittsburgh will Tebow the Leather. Steelers 45-2.

Cincinnati (+21) at Houston (+103)
No idea who’s healthy and who’s halfway decent when they are, but tossing a coin tells me 16-9 Texans. And I almost wrote Oilers, probably hoping Taylor Hall will start at QB.

Offseason roundup

A few quick notes on the Phillies offseason transactions so far:

Signed Jim Thome, 1/$1.25M
Even if he weren’t a doppelganger for my cat, I would welcome Thome back to town, based on the term and dollar amount and fact he’s still an offensive threat at 41. Wherever/however often he ends up playing, he can either help a team (.256/.361/.477 with 15 HR and 46 BB in 277 AB for an OPS+ of 131 last season between Minnesota and Cleveland*) or, in a worst case scenario, not do much other than move a few Thome jerseys and retire as a Phillie. And he’s still 2.5 years younger than Matt Stairs (though Stairs was only 40 in 2008).

* He did have an overall BABIP of .327 last season, his highest since 2001, but it wasn’t wildly out of line with the years in between.

Signed Jonathan Papelbon, 4/$50M
Welcome to Philadelphia, Ilya Papelbonov. Seriously, I don’t hate this signing as much as I should. What’s to hate: the Phillies are paying $50M for, optimally, 264 innings (based on his 2006-2011 six-year average of 66 IP/year, assuming similar lack of injury moving forward). The Phillies have paid Roy Halladay less than $36M for 484 innings (though granted, the average Halladay inning is lower-leverage than the average Papelbon inning, given starter vs. closer usage– unless you’re, like, Ron Washington or something). What’s not to hate: Papelbon is a healthy 31 with a career ERA+ of 197, WHIP of 1.018, and K/BB of 4.43 pitching in the tougher league. As opposed to:

Madson (age 31*): 123/1.294/2.86
Heath Bell (33): 127/1.197/3.07
Jose Valverde (33): 146/1.170/2.72

* Not a typo: believe it or not, Madson is three months OLDER than Papelbon.

I will loathe this deal when the Phillies end up with Yuniesky Betancourt at shortstop and Kyle Kendrick replacing Cole Hamels in the rotation because the team budget is maxed out on Papelbon, Ryan Howard, and Joe Blanton. And I wouldn’t have minded Antonio Bastardo, Phillies Closer at all (depending on health). But Papelbon can pitch. And he’s thrilled not to be moving to Winnipeg.

Resigned Brian Schneider, 1/$800K
I’ve never been much of a Schneider fan, but he’s really not a bad option for the term and dollars. I wouldn’t have objected to taking a flyer on a Jose Molina or Dioner Navarro or (probably too expensive but) Ramon Hernandez, but honestly, what’s the difference.

Traded PTBNL to Colorado for Ty Wigginton, owed $2M in 2012 and $4M (or $500K buyout) in 2013
I have the opposite reaction to this trade than I do to the Papelbon signing. Based on the term and dollars, it’s a good pickup, but a career OPS+ of 100 playing for mediocre teams in (for most of his career) the worse league while playing a bunch of positions poorly doesn’t thrill me. (Or maybe I just remember him as a Met.) If Wilson Betemit, who is 4 years younger, would have been less expensive and available, a dumb move. (OK, Betemit’s defense may be even worse, and his career OPS+ is only 105, but more of it was in the AL, and did I mention he’s 4 years younger?)

Didn’t sign Michael Cuddyer (yet), 0/$0M
Nothing wrong here.

Meanwhile the Nordiques

I don’t know French, which means I’m forced to read what’s apparently one of the better Montreal Canadiens blogs out there, En Attendant Les Nordiques, through Google Translate.

(OK, I’m not technically forced to read it because no one forces me to read hockey blogs, and because I’m not a bleu, blanc et rouge Habs fan, but I am a hockey fan and, quoth the Hip, a Completist, so I do.)

I also know Olivier’s a pretty decent writer from his (no translation required) comments on other hockey blogs I read, but without knowing French, I can’t comment on how much more or less amusing any of his writeups would be without the Franglish translation (i.e. if I actually spoke real French). With Google Translate, however, we’re definitely approaching Phil Rizzuto territory. A few recent examples:

“Martin quickly asked Gomez to play firefighters. No offense against Staal and death in the third. Misery.”

“The Bruins fought like moths and Thomas would not hear. Be. Great defensive withdrawal around it, it must also be noted.”

“Gomez finds his momentum and against the third Ranger, it was rather simple, anything very productive. He has solid fat in the third when Martin was allowed to warm trio Plek. Eller was incisive, I think it shows how much he has improved over last year, when he was lost to the wing.

“Otherwise it is easy to panic, they are really strong in the third folded, but it was not the bitch maneuvers.”

On the one hand, I feel like half a hockey fan, and hockey blogger, without knowing French or being able to read Olivier in his native (more coherent) language. On the other hand, how much more colourful can hockey writing be– well, unless you know Slovene, anyway.

Caveat Edler

Words of warning: do NOT buy Flyers tickets from a sixtysomething, somewhat lame black scalper outside the Wells Fargo Center named Eddie. Especially (on the off chance you’re dumb enough to be tempted to– I was, and did) do not buy e-tickets.

Being a Canucks fan, a Flyers fan, a law student with a rare off night, and too cheap for StubHub (minimum $39 plus lots of extras), I went to Broad Street on Wednesday night for the Flyers’ home opener vs. Vancouver. I bought one of two $91 e-tickets from Eddie for $30, who originally quoted me $50, then $40 as I walked away– which was dumb to begin with, because:

a. he would have taken $25 (my original counteroffer), but I only had two twenties and two tens on me, and
b. it was a fucking e-ticket.

Of course, when the Wells Fargo ticket taker went to scan it, it had already been scanned and was therefore defective, meaning it was either a duplicate copy or had been cancelled by the owner (according to an apparently unrelated scalper I was talking to on the subway afterwards, when a season ticket holder is burned by a scalper he sells to, he can call the Flyers and cancel the tickets so they won’t work, meaning everyone loses).†

†My theory is that scalper #2 was just defending Eddie as a fellow scalper, and Eddie was just an old lame scalper with a bunch of defective tickets.

I tracked Eddie down at the opposite end of the Wells Fargo Center. What’s hilarious is, he didn’t recognize me and actually tried to sell me the other e-ticket.

Me: You really don’t want to do that.
Eddie: Hunh?
Me: Recognize this? (holds up defective e-ticket #1)
Eddie: Awwww, shit—

Scalpers never offer refunds, but after blaming his supplier and seeming disingenuously befuddled, Eddie tore up the other ticket and gave it to me when I asked.

Scalping is depressing work. Scalpers– or at least the lower-level ones who work the streets– are mostly older, unhealthy (COPD? diabetes?), unwealthy black men outdoors in crappy weather (we were all eventually drenched on Wednesday night) who rely on mostly young, conspicuously wealthy white males who may want something for nothing, but can always come up with something.

We’re all desperate, true, but some of us are more desperate than others. Now I’m out thirty bucks. Eddie’s out a defective e-ticket. Sometimes, no one wins. Unless, of course, you’re the Flyers, who beat the Canucks, 5-4; who are now 3-0 for the 11th time in 44 seasons; and who have someone’s, if not someone else’s, $91. Hell, Blair Betts is even back in town.

Unwitting NHL 2011-2012 season preview

I was trying to post this as a comment over at Driving Play, but for whatever reason the comments don’t seem to be working, so I’m taking full ownership of it, since it’s obviously hockey season around here now:

Below are my playoff picks for the upcoming season. As a Canucks & Flyers fan I’ll be bummed pretty quickly, but it actually beats being outscored 23-8 in a seven game series, shut out twice, and wrapping up with your city burning down.

Eastern Conference
Caps
Bruins
Devils
Montreal
Pittsburgh
NYR
Flyers
Sabres
——-
TB
Carolina
Leafs
Ottawa
Florida
NYI
Winnipeg

Caps over Sabres in 7
Bruins over Flyers in 5
NYR over NJD in 6
Pittsburgh over Montreal in 4

Caps over NYR in 6
Pittsburgh over Bruins in 7

Pittsburgh over Caps in 6

Tempted to have either the Flyers or Sabres or both out of the playoffs and Carolina in, but couldn’t quite justify it, nor could I justify the Caps not beating/exhausting themselves in the playoffs or being out-Crosbied (or at least the Pens out-Crosbying some otherwise questionable goaltending). I also wanted to rank Florida higher (“totally mediocre” seems like it should be better than next-to-next-to-last in the East), but honestly don’t see them better than any of the other non-playoff teams without even looking beyond goaltending (Roloson, Ward, Reimer, Anderson all > Theodore/Clemmensen/handfuls of Markstrom). The Devils picked a good season to self-destruct to end up with Larsson in the draft (see also: San Antonio Spurs, 1996-97– I don’t think Larsson will quite be the Tim Duncan of the NHL, but he can at least be Tyler Myers).

Western Conference
Blackhawks
Sharks
Canucks
LA
Detroit
Nashville
Calgary
Anaheim
——-
Phoenix
Dallas
St. Louis
Minnesota
CBJ
Colorado
Edmonton

Chicago over Anaheim in 4
Sharks over Calgary in 6
Vancouver over Nashville in 7
Detroit over LA in 6

Chicago over Detroit in 5
Sharks over Vancouver in 6

Sharks over Chicago in 7

Tempted to go with the Blackhawks but the Sharks have to reach the finals one of these years, right? (Even those disappointing Senator teams of the ‘oughts finally did in 2007, and Antti Niemi is nothing if not Finnish for “Ray Emery.”)

Stanley Cup
Pittsburgh over San Jose in 5

Sidney Crosby pulls a 2002 Forsberg in the playoffs, but his team actually wins.

Hart: Toews
Art Ross: Sedin (more specifically, Henrik), otherwise Toews, otherwise Ovechkin
Vezina: Carey Price– everyone else is due for regression or a total wild card/unknown (e.g. Corey Crawford) to me; Craig Anderson may be my #2 pick and the whole-world-is-watching Ilya Bryzgalov even has the opportunity to crack the top 3 with a few breaks
Norris: Weber
Calder: Larsson
Selke: Kesler not healthy + Datsyuk older & already won a few + everyone focused on the Kings offseason = Richards, otherwise Datsyuk
Adams: whoever exceeds expectations and isn’t a Sutter (i.e. either Pete DeBoer or Jacques Martin), otherwise Quenneville– I’ll go with DeBoer
Lady Byng: who cares– Datsyuk, I guess, when he doesn’t win the Selke
Conn Smythe: Crosby (you were expecting Boris Valabik?)

Verlander v. Bautista

Whoever argues that Verlander does or doesn’t deserve to win the AL MVP over Bautista because his team is better is missing the obvious point: his team isn’t better.

W/L              Actual         Pythag
Tigers           77-62          71-68
Blue Jays      69-70          71-68

Tiger batters: .272/.334/.422, 108 OPS+
Blue Jay batters: .254/.318/.423, 98 OPS+

Tiger pitchers: 4.18, 96 ERA+, 1.345 WHIP, 937 K
Blue Jay pitchers: 4.24, 101 ERA+, 1.356 WHIP, 998 K

Verlander’s team is luckier: they’re exceeding their expected W/L record where Toronto is marginally underperforming; they play in a far worse division (Pythag W/L still has them in first place, though by a slimmer margin; the White Sox would be in second at 67-69); and any Tiger advantages in batting are arguably offset by Blue Jay advantages in pitching (as adjusted by ERA+). Verlander may be more valuable to the Tigers, and to the pennant race, than Bautista is to the Blue Jays, but his team isn’t better.